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15bb Push/Fold Chart (9-Max Nash)

At 15 big blinds the Nash jam ranges are 5% from UTG, 11% from MP, 20% from the cutoff, 29% from the button and 56% from the small blind at a 9-handed table. At this depth a jam is no longer your only option — but knowing which hands are still a profitable shove is what keeps a raise-fold strategy honest.

Chart

UTG — 4.7% of hands

MP — 10.9% of hands

CO — 20.0% of hands

BTN — 29.4% of hands

SB — 55.5% of hands

JamMixed jamFold

Expected value per hand (bb)

Fifteen blinds is where most good players stop shoving and start raising. That does not make this chart obsolete — it makes it a benchmark. Any hand that is a clearly profitable jam at 15bb is a hand strong enough to get all the money in preflop; anything below that line should be raised with a plan, not shoved out of laziness.

The ranges have compressed hard from 8bb: the button is down from 39% to 29%, the small blind from 73% to 56%, and UTG has almost bottomed out at 5%. Notice which hands survive at every stack — pairs and big suited aces — and which vanish first: the offsuit gappers and weak suited kings that only ever worked because someone had to fold.

A word on ICM: all of these numbers are pure chip EV. On a final-table bubble, a 15bb shove that is +0.05bb in chips can be clearly losing in real money, because busting costs you more than the chips are worth. Use these ranges as the chip-EV baseline and tighten from there whenever pay jumps are close.

FAQ

Should I still push/fold at 15bb?

You have real options at 15bb — a raise leaves you room to fold. But the shoving ranges here are still the correct benchmark: any hand that is a clear +EV jam is strong enough to get all in preflop. Below that line, raise with a plan rather than shoving by default.

Do these charts account for ICM?

No. They are chip-EV Nash equilibria. Near a pay jump, busting costs more than the chips you win are worth, so the correct ranges are tighter than these — especially for the medium stacks who can afford to wait. Treat these as the chip-EV baseline and tighten on the bubble.

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